We'll get a better idea next week as to how the ocean compares to 1998 when the February monthly ERSST data comes in.  At this point, we are favoring this event to persist longer into the Spring than the 1997/98 event did.  We also judge there to be a 50% chance of La Nina developing by September - November (SON) 2016.  For comparison sake, La Nina began in June - August 1998, with the ONI at -1.2 during SON.