First, thanks for reply, besides the unpleasant effects of El-Nino, i enjoy the first time to watch a El-Nino from the beginning to the End. I have learned so much, only by looking all the near daily data from NOAA especially the TAO/TRITON-Program and its a pity that there was some dropouts of TAO between 2012 to 2014. But there is something i dont get about the Feedback-Loops, so hope you can help me out... If we look insolated at the atmosphere response (especially wind-force) and the ocean (especially OHC), what condition have to be, to trigger a Feedback-Loop or in a schematic way: convection cell arise 180E/W --------> Wind-Burst ------------> Downwelling Kelvinwave ---------------------> increase OHC by pushing down the thermocline ---------------> upwelled water become warmer ----------- SST increase -------------> weakens ocean/land-contrast -------------> weaken Trade-Winds ---------------------> less mass which is upwelled -------------> SST-Increase ..... convection cell arise again... So whats have to come at first, increase OHC or weaken of winds, or a coincidence which arise convection cell? I think here, all together, so as you said in the Blogpost. In 2014 there was a early strong Kelvinwave, OHC has risen a lot, but it was not enough, because trade winds had not weaken this lot, to trigger the Feedback-Loop, so far so good... but why didnt do they, what was the difference in 2014 to 2015? This is the thing i didnt understand. Greets