But this should be normal, since the trade winds are near normal, upwelling and divergence is also near normal and push the warm outside the inner tropics. We can see this strong residual warming by the TAO-Program: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=time_lon_8N_hf_tbar_tbar_mean_anom_201510_201607_2016071814.gif&P2=xt621_2016071814.plt001&P3=895&P4=658&P5=/cache-tao/sy1/jsdisplay&script=jsdisplay/scripts/biggif.csh at 8N. But said before, that should be normal, also find in 1998 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi? P1=time_lon_8N_hf_tbar_tbar_mean_anom_199710_199807_2016071814.gif&P2=xt716_2016071814.plt001&P3=895&P4=658&P5=/cache-tao/sy1/jsdisplay&script=jsdisplay/scripts/biggif.csh Therefore, it look unlikly that this is the cause, i think is more simpel, month before,(in the forcast barrier) Models tend to a strong La-Nina-Conditions in June to July, since this not happen, Feedback-Loops should weaken in Model and there decrease chance of La-Nina