Yes, it is normal. Even during a more mature La Nina, there is an expected horseshoe pattern of opposite sign (warm) SST anomalies surrounding the cool anomalies near the equator. But it is the AMOUNT of warm water in the tropical Pacific more generally, say from 20S to 20N. It is quite extensive. It may be related to the positive PDO phase currently. It also may be because the El Nino was strong, so there is more warm water. Another factor, as you mentioned, is that the negative OHC anomaly is not extremely strong as it was in 1998, so the emergence of cold water right along the equator is not as strong as it was in 1998. You're right that models have weakened their La Nina forecast strength partly because the initial conditions in July are not as cool as they had been predicted to become in the forecasts from the prior month. The question becomes why didn't things cool down as much as objectively expected earlier by the models. A natural question to ask now is whether this adjustment is part of a trend, and if the models will back off even more in August, or whether it is an overshoot and the models will slightly strengthen their La Nina forecast next month. Looking at the subsurface profile, to me it looks weaker now, and without the negative OHC anomaly things could weaken even more for next month's set of model runs. The cooling seems to be manifest right now at the surface, with last week's OISST anomaly in Nino3.4 at -0.6C, which could be just flash in the pan that might retreat to -0.4C again next week.