Role of the PDO in this Forecast La Nina
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Tony, a fantastic blog entry. Thanks for taking the time to do this. As you know, the PDO has been overwhelmingly positive since January 2014. The June value just came in today from the folks at Univ. of Washington +2.3. The highest June value since 1997 (going into El Nino). I know there is a lot of debate about whether El Ninos serve to boost the PDO+ value, or whether the PDO+ in turn fuels the El Ninos. Can you comment on this? At the end of the day, it is what it is, and El Nino events are much more common than La Nina when the PDO is positive, which it is now. Thus, this La Nina would seem to have a lot of "headwinds" opposing it. Are there any stats on the ratio of El Nino to La Nina during PDO+ and vice versa?