RE: RE: La Nina
You're absolutely right that other countries can come to different conlusions on the ENSO status (though I only know of one right now: Japan). The main reason for this is that we all have different thresholds with respect to ENSO. Why is that? ENSO is a very complex phenomenon that cannot be simply distilled to one number and impacts each country differently. In our ENSO guidebook we're "cool-neutral" at the moment, but one of the main reasons we dropped the watch is because we're favoring Neutral in the near future. I just updated the ENSO blog with a new post that provides some more info on why we made that decision, so check it out:
... and, as always, forecasters will update our consensus outlook next month when the new round of data comes rolling in. This is a borderline situation, which is one of the hardest forecasts to make (in contrast 2015 was easy as pie because the El Nino was so strong and obvious).
For upcoming precipitation and temperature outlooks, check out the CPC webpage here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/