Hi Michelle, Thanks for another excellent post and the eye catching GIF animation that clearly show the vastly different ENSO outlook with time. Quick question: assuming a La Nina does not eventually materialize (and we remain in neutral conditions) , would this be the first El Nino to Neutral transition having adjusted for strength of the preceding El Nino? If so, what are the plausible physical reasons behind this observation (i.e.is this consistent with the recharge oscillator theory?)? Granted, El Nino dynamics is still an evolving science but it would be interesting to see if this new observation challenges our previous thinking, and in doing so dramatically alters the transition probability odds... Thanks!