Thanks for your response. There should be some sort of penalty for making such inaccurate predictions as the CPC did with last year's "90% chance of El Nino". 90% is a pretty large probability and the model failed by all measures. Now, a dry La Nina prediciton does not appear to be correct either as, at present, there are major storms in CA dropping significant precipitation. How can any coherent individual take your dept and your published results seriously? How can you publish any opinion on future weather events with 90% certainty? It seems almost fraudulent.