International models show a very short cool period which fit the normal range for the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Outlooks The U.S. CFSv2 model has failed to model the equatorial Atlantic accurately over the past year and cannot be trusted to model the equatorial Pacific. If there is a La Niña by the U.S. criteria it will likely be marginal given the very small negative heat content anomaly. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Sea-sub%E2%80%93surface The 30 day SOI has returned to the slightly negative value of -2.6 which is not consistent with a developing La Niña and convection is moving eastward out of the Indonesian region.