Hi Scott. Thanks for your comment. I don't see a lot of rainfall over Paita during last December or even January. I'm using this product, available at the Latin American Observatory's Datoteca: http://datoteca.ole2.org/maproom/Sala_de_Mapas/Vigilancia-Map-2/Anomaly.html.es Probably there are differences with respect to what local stations in Paita are measuring?? (if so, let me know, as that is interesting). Anyway, I don't think the rains you're talking about can be physically linked to an El Niño. I'll need a more detailed analysis to understand what's going on in Paita, but if you want to know what the different seasonal products are suggesting for the next few months in terms of rainfall, you can check with SENAMHI, your local met service. These international products are available too: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/seasanom.shtml (NMME) http://www.cmc.org.ve/ole2/medianoplazo.php (Latin American Observatory, IRI, EUROBRISA, ECMWF)