Given the fact that the short and weak La Niña followed a strong El Niño in 2015-2016, and the fact that the AO has been positive much of the winter, the prediction of a returning El Niño later in 2017 means that the closest analog event historically (based on tables of ONI since 1950) to our current time is the winter of 1964-1965 and the subsequent spring. 1965 was a wild year meteorologically, and thus this year may be as well!