For the record, The last 11 El Niño's going back to 1980 were all proceeded by three-month average Neutral conditions of 12 months or longer. Unless some Neutral forcing mechanism is in place for an average of 12 months or longer, it is doubtful El Niño development will occur. AND The last 7 La Niña's going back to 1987 were all proceeded by three-month average Neutral conditions of 6 months or less. La Niña conditions are present as ocean surfaces cool during the SH winter. and The monthly pattern going back to 2008 is 12 N, 10 EN, 2 N, 10 LN, 3 N, and 8 LN in 2012. Followed by 35 N, 15 EN, 2 N, 5 LN, 2 N today and ??? to follow. Eerie similar! Therefore, Neutral conditions will continue, to be followed by La Niña conditions in the short term future, and/or El Niño conditions in the longer term future. Please disregard earlier comment.