As stated early on in this very good article, it appears that forecasting of such a major factor of weather behavior, for large areas of the planet, is far less than accurate. The most recent El Nino forecast year 2016, ended up quite different, even embarrassing, to those who follow this closely. While accepting the ENSO is tricky at best, how does this 'square' with the 'settled science' of climate predictions in general? Thanks and keep up the good reporting.