I did a quick check of the index for the onset of discharge for the summer of 2016 as defined in Ramesh and Murtugudde (2013). It seems like there was no discharge. My bet would be that there will be no El Niño this year. I think a closer look at the discharge may give us a longer lead for monitoring the subsurface and may be even hedge the bets a bit more accurately in the probabilistic forecasts. Of course the probability of a false alarm is always nonzero but still.