Please let me know where I am going wrong, cause I see an elnino build up basis a. Backtesting of weekly SST Ano data b. Monthly Anom. are quicker to see and reflect changes in rains accordingly c. I have been following GFS 2.1 and 2.5 models + JMA as they have been nearest on the recent formations d. Pattern recognition from 2009 Work I backtested the weekly SST given out by CPC/NOAA. If 2 back to back weekly SST are above .5 and 4 weeks before the Anom was .5 then 10/10 chances the anom remains above .5 for 16 weeks. And 6/10 chances you get an Elnino. The reversal in 2014, actually caused reduction in monsoon in India/Malaysia/Indonesia in the JJAs monsoon and later in OND'14 it came back. Doing the job it was feared to do, Guess we need to focus on monthly numbers rather than quarterly, cause +.5 in months of JJAS period brought Indian rains down in 2009/12 and also historically other years. I hyaven't backtested Australian and Indonesia cause lack of weather data. If we see quarterly ONI we are running similar to 2009 EL nino and 2 months forward actually moving from -.7 to +.4 in 5 months and could we see it strengthen to +1 by OND. Would be great to connect and have a chat.