Using a small number of events as analogs is not typically a successful way to make a climate forecast.  However, even compared to 2009, the ocean is significantly different, with sub-surface ocean temperature anomalies much weaker than those observed during May and June 2009.  In addition, forecasts from most of the dynamical models have gotten progressively less El Nino-like in their forecasts over the past few months.  Finally, the current state of the atmosphere has shown no indication of coupling to the modestly positive SST anomalies across the Pacific.  While not ruling out that El Nino could develop later this year, the official forecast does favor ENSO neutral to persist through the remainder of the year.