Thank you!  Yes, we now can be quite confident in the fall forecast of ENSO region SSTs.  However, keep in mind that there is additional forecast uncertainty about how ENSO conditions will connect with SE US winter conditions.  Even if we can be quite confident in the ENSO signal over the SE US, those pesky random weather variations unrelated to ENSO (what we scientists call "internal atmospheric variability") can lead to much wider uncertainty than in the short-term SST forecasts.  Basically, this is just a reminder that we shouldn't a expect such a high correlation for local conditions over the U.S., but it's still reassuring that the uncertainty in ENSO conditions this fall and winter is diminishing.