I live in the High Cascades region of the Pacific Northwest. Last year’s prediction for the west coast was spectacularly off. (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-expect-winter-noaa’s-2016-17-winter-outlook) I wonder if any study has been made of how far off the predictions have been from the actuals each year, and is there a trend that predictions are less and less accurate, due to the effects of climate change?