Hi Kevin,

As you can see from the previous ENSO Blog post (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/winter-coming-noaa%E2%…), NOAA CPC is calling for elevated probabilities of above normal temperatures in the New York metro area, although the signal for warmth is not as strong as in areas farther south.  CPC does not issue seasonal outlooks for snowfall.  One reason is that it is very tricky to forecast snowfall over most regions that typically receive a few snowstorms or less each year.  You're right that the NYC region has experienced above average snowfall the past few winters despite the last two being quite mild.  As you probably recall, most of the snowfall two winters ago occurred in one big snowstorm in January.  The sensitivity of seasonal snowfall totals to individual storms illustrates how challenging it is to forecast seasonal snowfall over many regions.