There is a bit to unpack here, but I want to address three main points: 1. Seasonal climate forecasts are just that, forecasts for the average weather over an entire season. So we certainty cannot throw in the towel on a climate forecast based on two weeks, except in pretty rare circumstances. Specifically with respect to Texas, the September-November season was warmer and drier than average for the state as a whole, consistent with a La Niña footprint. The first six days of December have been very warm over Texas. Yes, colder weather (with rain and snow) is there now and may come in and out over the coming weeks. The key thing to remember is that these forecasts are verified over a long period, and within any season there are going to be ups and downs related to individual weather regimes. 2. Yes, climate change can affect ENSO teleconnections. This is an active area of research, but at this time we don't have any reason to dramatically change our forecast ENSO response. That said, our forecasts have to account for climate warming, and so our official forecasts are often warmer than, for example, a simple La Niña composite where trends are not accounted for. 3. Low-frequency climate forcing explains only a small portion of the day to day variability in the weather. That is to say that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes very, very small when trying to find the fingerprints of ENSO or even climate change in today's weather.