Hi Alex,

We don't focus on distinguishing between canonical or Eastern Pacific El Nino and Modoki for a few reasons.  First, the distinction between the two types is not clearcut - the location of maximum sea surface temperature departures from normal for El Nino actually varies rather continuously from the eastern Pacific to the central Pacific.  Therefore, it's not trivial to distinguish between two types.  Second, the location of the maximum sea surface temperature anomalies is closely related to the amplitude of the event: stronger events tend to be centered more toward the east, whereas weaker events tend to be centered farther west.  This means the question of El Nino "flavor" is strongly related to the amplitude, and it is a bit early to pinpoint the amplitude of the coming event.  These points are covered in this post, and I strongly recommend that you read this recent post by guest author Prof. Jason Furtado regarding the potential event this fall and winter.  You also might like to look at the sea surface temperature patterns as well as the temperature and precipitation patterns that the dynamical models of the NMME predict for the next several seasons.  

I also would point out that Tom plans on writing a post in September about how the U.S. impacts of El Nino vary from event to event, so stay tuned for that update!