Thank you for all the work you do on this blog, I love it and I'm learning a lot! I was wondering, does the average on which forecasters base the possibility of an ENSO even change over time? So if the oceans are gradually warming, will the enso signal have the same .05C departure because the average is increasing? Or will we just be seeing El Nino after El Nino and fewer La Nina events? I hope that question makes sense...