ENSO events are so different that we generally discourage using 'analogs' to say something about the future.  We wrote a little bit about this here:  https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/why-past-enso-cases-aren’t-key-predicting-current-case This case-to-case variance is why our climate outlooks (e.g. winter outlook 2018-19) are expressed in probabilities.