While the El Nino temperatures seem to predict such an event will take place, please take a look at the much larger surface area of the North Pacific centered on the Gulf of Alaska that has equal anomalies to that of those in the equatorial Pacific. My feeling is that this is the same set up that occurred during the 2015-16 season when there was supposed to be a major El Nino event but it fizzled out due to the persistent, stagnant high pressure ridge that was resident in the North Pacific. This ridge occurred largely as a result of the higher than normal SSTs in the N. Pacific. More attention needs to be paid to this phenomenon as it is clearly causing the recurring droughts in California and suppressing El Nino events as well. The ridge is back along with the higher SSTs, so this will be a minor El Nino.