It seems to matter a lot whether the El Nino is strong or weak. From the data you present, there is indeed a clear indication that a strong El-Nino is highly likely to produce a warmer-than-normal winter in NA. But it seems to me, looking at the same data, that weak El Ninos could do the opposite - i.e. weak El Ninos seem to be associated with a lot of colder-than-usual winters. The predicted forthcoming El Nino is not expected to be strong. So on this basis, it seems quite likely that NA could still experience a cold winter.