Quite an interesting article! Biggest question that comes to mind- as an weather enthusiast : Have we had (from the satellite area to present) a lagged as long as this for the atmosphere to not go full on on El Nino conditions? And will the MJO hinder its onset (at whichever level of intensity). From my observations of the Global SST ; the overwhelming above average temps may be accelerating the response-rate of the MJO and its effects on seasonal pattern like El Nino.