This subtle El Nino pattern has been present since September. And now you announce the El Nino on Valentines day? But the Winter weather is more complicated than just the influences of the El Nino. There are a couple events going on here. First the MJO was ignored for the winter weather and the East Coast. The Number showed warm weather for the Eastern US. Then the Polar Vortex split and the weak daughter was over Canada and ran out of cold in the Mid West. And the Stronger daughter was in the Barents area and caused the storms that were in Alaska and the storm energy that moved to Hawaii. While the El Nino has the two Jet streams split moving across the US running the storms off the West Coast and the other Jet Blocking the storms off from the East Coast. And if you look closely at the satellite you can see the warmer red spots off the east coast. Weather is more complicated that just El Nino.