The latest update on the BOM shows an El Nino Watch (which is not consistent) and they may call El Nino for their side later in the autumn (spring here). If El Nino is here by US standards at the moment it will likely be marginal and short lived given the current SST temperatures hovering at the threshold or just below it, unless if could be a long sustained El Nino given the models (including the US model) are all over the place and should be cautioned early in the year. The SOI has not been consistent on the BOM side of things since the fall of last year and at times briefly reached the La Nina threshold late last year, even though the latest update shows the edge towards El Nino. I do wonder if there should be more consideration given to the SOI? Usually for them, values below -7 on a sustained basis indicate El Nino. Would like to know what the criteria is in the US for the SOI threshold on the negative side to be called El Nino?