Nobody likes a busted forecast, but the reality is that when we evaluate their hits and misses over the span of a decade or more, NOAA's seasonal outlooks are right more often than one would be simply by guessing. Say, for example, you're a farmer in the South who has to decide each winter whether to put in cover crop that can stand soggy conditions or one that is better able to withstand drought. If you followed the outlook's guidance over the span of 10-15 years, it would have steered you right more often than you'd expect to be right from a random guess. Using seasonal outlooks is a classic example of why it pays to play the long game.