G'day, El Nino will peak 26 December 2019, be curtailed by La Nina 20 January 2020. There is a rash prediction. Just two-and-a-half months off. The earth-moon barycentre will be at top of the mantle, crossing 26 December below the equator in the west Pacific, as marked by the shadow called a total solar eclipse. The molten metal ocean below, vastly more massive than the water one above, cannot lift the much more massive yet mantle, so big flow currents result. When the barycentre is at the top of the mantle its distance from the earth’s daily rotation-centre is at max so, as with all physical bodies with two turning axes, heat is generated and maximum heat is generated then. On 20 January, a lunar eclipse marks the barycentre being at the bottom of the mantle again. The historical back record is perfect, but all met people switch their minds off at the top of the lithosphere. At the bottom of mantle, the temperature is about 5,000 degrees Kelvin. In space it is 3 degrees Kelvin. So that heat flows which way? We all forgot the tidal force of the sun, half that of the moon at this distance. So the barycentre dos not live at the midpoint of the mantle it goes top to bottom of mantle lunar monthly. Hence the mantle, core and crust. And our very large geomagnetic field and its dipole and non-dipole components. The internal heat of the Earth is tidal and magnetic. That, incidentally drives climate change, not trace atmospheric carbon from machine, cow and car farts. Can't tell Greta or her Mum, they are drowning in correspondence. Nor the IPCC, Al Gore, Royal Society of London, "Nature", etc. , The postulated ball of uranium at the centre of the earth’s inner core does not exist. It was just Arthur Holmes' guess when he discovered plate tectonics in 1928. He needed an engine to move his basalt marine plates, so guessed (as he admitted) at it being radioactive uranium. But you can't push basalt plates. They shear and crumple. You instead drag them (and the continental plates) west at variable rates. All else follows. The moon arrived maybe about 2.3 b.y. back, and earth's tidal effect on it can be seen as the dark mare. Lunar crater-based dating is total nonsense, as the craters are mostly gas vents. Even the ejecta array ones are simply radial tension cracks. Some centre way off the obviously-linked crater. So, stars are also magnetic hells, not radioactive ones. The astronomers bought some very wrong geology theory, without much thinking and transferred it to all stars. Ho hum. Don't blame Holmes. He was probably the best geologist ever. A reprint of his 1928 plate tectonics diagram is in every edition of his classic "Principles of Physical Geology" book, 1946, last edition 1966 (I think.) If you don't make huge mistakes in geology (here too, of course?) you aren't working. There would be no drilling rigs - we would just say "mine here" and point. Peter Spencer Ravenscroft Geologist, Australia. p.s.ravenscroft@gmail.com phone international 617 3289 4470 All info always public domain and free.