The rolling base period for the current departures will update next year, likely during January.  This will certainly impact the recent values, but it's too soon to speculate how.  You are correct in the if the FMA2020 ONI comes it at 0.5 (or greater) that will satisfy one of the criteria for an El Nino.  However, El Nino is a coupled Ocean-Atmosphere phenomenon, and the ONI is just one indicator as we note at the top of the ONI index page (link:  https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php ).  We've seen instances in the past, where the numbers in the table are red, yet El Nino was not judged to have developed (see late 2014 for one recent case where we did not declare El Nino), as there was not the expected atmospheric response until February 2015. For more detail on the criteria for determining El Nino see Emily's outstanding blog post (and flow chart) from January 2016.:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-niño-and…