Hi, could you please clarify your HSS comments. "Therefore, an HSS of 30 would correspond with 80 correct forecasts (100*(80-50)/(150-50)). 80 is 60% higher than 50." 

The HSS for DJF manual forecasts from 1995 - 2021 is 16.4 on average across the entire U.S. Based on your formula, that would imply 66.4 correct forecasts in 150, or  ~44%. Does that not imply an incorrect forecast 56% of the time or am I not understanding this correctly? Thanks!