Hi Justin, it's just too early to tell what will happen next fall and winter The forecast indicates an elevated chance that La Nina will return next fall and winter, but the probability is still less than 50%, meaning that neutral conditions or (with a much lower chance) El Nino conditions also have a reasonable chance of occurring. If La Nina does reemerge, we do not know if it will be stronger or weaker than this year (but I did write about droughts often being stronger in the second year of La Nina).