Thanks for your comment! The Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) angle is an interesting observation (we discussed the PMM in a guest post by Prof. Daniel Vimont previously). According to Prof. Vimont's website, it looks like the PMM index has indeed turned negative recently. I do not have a definitive answer, but it seems like a reasonable hypothesis that this may impact the probability of La Nina reemerging next fall. There is a recent study suggesting that the mid-latitudes (via the PMM) may be an important factor for double-dip La Ninas, but they focused on the winter and spring before the first peak. Perhaps it also can play a role in determining if there's a second peak, but I believe that needs more study.