Keep your eyes on our monthly updates posted here (2nd Thursday of each month): 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Our official probabilities (which are linked at the end of the second paragraph) are here:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

Right now (and this will update monthly) we are around 35% for the summer and fall.