RE: RE: Ugh-La Nina
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Sometimes we have wetter conditions during La Nina winters in California, so dry conditions aren't set in stone. ENSO is important as a prediction tool for California, but it is not the entire ballgame. Here's an example of one memorable wet La Nina winter:
CPC's seasonal outlooks are in terms of probabilities (percent chance that something will happen) and it's never anywhere close to 100%. La Nina offers a hedge in the direction of certain future outcomes, but not a guarantee. Check out NOAA CPC's seasonal outlook which is updated on the 3rd Thursday of each month here (click the links that say X-month outlook): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/