Thank you Nathaniel.Johnson for your kind reply . I have a hunch based on intuition/guess that the next month's update will differ dramatically . The models used in the above report do Not account for the impact from volcanic forcing, do they? I am not sure the estimates from the element models do incorporate variables like the volcanic forcing and other sources of variability in the underwater temperatures . There have been several substantive equatorial volcanic eruptions that took-place near the equator the last 12 months, volcanic eruptions that happen near the equator have instant and longer-lived inpact on the stratospheric temperatures as such the circulation , to name some of the eruptions : Mount Nyiragongo volcanic eruption On Saturday 22 May 2021 Mount Nyiragongo volcano, also in South America In April 2021 , as well 18 paroxysmal eruptions in Etna Volcano Of Italy since February, 2021 , plus several many other eruptions that had reached stratospheric or near stratospheric altitudes , these eruptions combined MAY have some influence on the dynamics and I am Not a climatologist but also volcanic eruptions on the eastern sides of continental land that happened last 12 months may have another Bill to pay if we add up their effect or interact it with these models . In short: I am not sure the models in use for those propensity estimates of the lanina and its magnitudes do account for other sources of noise,maybe they do . That is why I have such intuition we may face stronger than predicted Lanina .
Thank you again for your kind reply ,
Mohammad