Thank you for the updates, there are very helpful!

You mention the possibility of a 3rd La Niña phenomenon in a row, which could be very problematic for grains' production in US and LatAm. Knowing that is very important for me.

However, regarding the intensity of current La Niña (moderate), what is the probability of that intensity forecast to rise or drop? or in other words, what is the margin of error for that intensity to change in the following months? A final question is, which month prediction regarding the intensity of the phenomenon has the best score of an accurate prediction? 

Thank you in advance for you help!

Best,

Edder