This was an interesting and informative post, as usual.  It's clear from reading it that there are a lot of factors at play for climate (rather than just ENSO), and that it's best to talk about how the ongoing La Niña may influence the weather this winter (rather than what effects it will cause).  So, keep up the good work.

Question: When will you start having a good idea of what the odds of an El Niño / La Niña/ ENSO-neutral for winter 2023-24 will be?