Interesting article.  The analysis and graphics are excellent.  Alas, so far the predictions are completely wrong, at least for my area of the country (let's just call it the mid-Atlantic).  Temps are running way below average for December and the short- to mid-range outlook is even colder.  We might even have our first white Christmas in many years.  Of course, warmer weather in January and February could rescue the forecast.  But in our area, the pattern of recent years has been a warm December, middling January, and cold and snowy February (and a winter slow to release its grip in March and April).  So let's see how it goes.