I think of "neutral" as a …
Permalink
I think of "neutral" as a *lack* of forcing from the tropical Pacific. So there is nothing directly "pushing" on the global circulation from the tropical Pacific. A weak event means there is some "pushing" but it is not very strong and, consequently, the resulting forecasts tend to be lower probability. Ideally (for prediction), we want a stronger event b/c that means more forcing (or pushing). Hope that makes sense.