This is really interesting information, thanks for the wonderful job!

Just curious to know: The current official NOAA ENSO probability chart shows a probabilistic transition to "neutral" by the FMA period, which lingers until the summer has a (minute) probabilistic shift to "El Niño" by the JAS / ASO period.  Meanwhile "La Niña" probability goes down to 10% from AMJ on for the rest of the year...

Take this to mean the probability is "ENSO neutral" on the year, for all practical purposes.  However, when stacked up against prior modelling, is this something we can take for granted?  Or are there variables in the works that really only present a more concrete picture by say, the MAM period, when winter is in the rear view mirror?

(The science of probability is very fascinating, can imagine the modelling methodology is continually being refined over time!)