La Nina has been stubbornly holding on, though there has been some weakening of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies over the past month. Maybe this is a sign that we are finally on the way out of this almost never-ending La Nina? Check out Emily's February update post next week - I'm sure she will share all the latest thinking. 

NOAA's latest ENSO Outlook from early last month indicates that we are unlikely to see La Nina conditions continue beyond this winter, and the probability of La Nina next fall is quite low (but not zero!). I don't expect the probability of a fourth-year La Nina to change appreciably, which means it seems very unlikely though not impossible. 

I agree that NOAA's ENSO Outlooks generally are quite skillful, though we must keep in mind that forecasts made in early winter for the following fall are much less accurate than at other times of the year (see here for some discussion of why).