Thanks for raising some good points! We did have a high-amplitude MJO phase 3, which often leads to wet conditions on the West Coast. So, I agree that we likely can point to specific factors contributing to this unusual winter, and it would be worthwhile to carry out a detailed attribution analysis. 

I also agree that relying on ENSO indices for a seasonal forecast is a recipe for a busted forecast, particularly IF the forecast is not interpreted correctly. If one expects a deterministic forecast (it WILL be wet or it WILL be dry), then both the forecaster and user will be disappointed quite often. As we emphasize on the blog, ENSO may tilt the odds toward one outcome or the other, but the forecast is always probabilistic. That means forecasts will bust from time to time, and success or failure must be evaluated over many forecasts. 

As a snow lover, I am jealous of Flagstaff residents, though I suppose many of those residents have a different perspective than I do.