There has actually been some…
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There has actually been some research done on the tendency of models to predict MORE of something if that something has already happened. From the abstract, "Models tend to predict warming when initialized after observed warming conditions and cooling when initialized after observed cooling conditions. "
That's one reason for caution and why even with current conditions (anomalous warm water at depth) conducive for El Nino development later this year, that probabilities were still 60-40%-ish on its development.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL087008