There are probabilities and there are probabilities. (I have a stats degree.) The good people aboard the Titanic has a very high probability of making it across the Atlantic safely.  Investigations showed at least a half dozen things that might have prevented the sinking.

I do not have access to the NOAA models, but one might wonder whether or not any showed some degree of the record-breaking precipitation and significant cold that has impacted the West.  And, instead of self-praise, asking why the models failed to indicate such a major climate event only weeks prior.