This is a really great post, summarizing the ENSO forecast succinctly!

After 3 years of La Niña - which seemed to be waning mid-2021, yet reversed course for another year-and-a-half - one still wonders if there's a chance some new anomaly can come along, and alter prediction inputs in the near future?  That 2021 reversal is very interesting from a data perspective.  The fact the models are trying to predict outcomes amid a sea of input changes, (unintentional pun) and not lower variable / stable inputs, is what makes it so difficult! 

Anyhow, looking at the last 60 years of Sea Surface temps, Land temps and polar ice concentration data, it is stunning to see that despite a relatively linear increase in warming, the polar ice levels suddenly got knocked down, then seem to have reached a point of 'Relative' (with a capital "R") stability since around the mid-2000s.  The last decade of ice data emboldens some to claim interest in climate is "much ado about nothing", which is misguided.

In the mean time, the communications of these Real (with a capital "R"!) changes to climate is a touchy subject, yet one objectively gets the sense there isn't much room now for downplaying the patently obvious.

Keep up the excellent work, looking forward to see and hear any findings this current shift brings!