Hi, all I am a new member here. I am looking for some answers as I am getting mixed information. I live on the canadian prairies in southern Manitoba and there is a lot of talk about a El Nino arriving. I see right now that the northern plains are getting a lot of rainfall as this current weather pattern is letting a NW flow sit over eastern canada with high pressure to the north. Storms so far have escaped my region but, I am wondering with the approach of El Nino could there in fact be an increase in the number of severe weather events in my neck of the woods (Brandon,MB,Canada to Winnipeg and NW Ontario)as summer arrives or could that stay stateside? Farmers desperately need the rain this summer for there crops and we only get rain from thunderstorms, and only have until October for farming. If it comes too late crops wont yeild, if it comes not enough we wont get a good yield in. Someone told me that it might all depend on the presence of high pressure and its position, either death ridge or gulf flow. I've never really lived through a summer with a strong EL nino before 2015, only one I can remember was 2015 when all summer we had monsoon rains with convection, hailstorms all summer and tornadoes over the manitoba Lakes. 1 Tornado overnight lasted 3hours, unheard of before. Is there a definite pattern with El Ninos?? Does anyone have information on El Ninos influence of severe weather over the northern plains during summer season?  Im asking as it seems that there isnt really any long range outlooks that seem consistent even on the CFSV2 with regards to the upper pattern for this summer. The only study that I could find was tornado climatology over the canadian prairies in regards to ENSO. 

Could anyone shed a light on there opinions?? It would ease some of my worries, thank you cheers from Canada.