Interesting 2014 is considered an El Nino dud.  That's was the beginning of a weird weather pattern off the coast of California where we had lots of light southerly winds (not associated with low pressure systems) during spring instead of the normal North-Westerlies that give us all the upwelling.  We haven't had that pattern this year, the North-Westerlies have been in full effect and we've had some of the coldest coastal water in ten years as a result.  If correlation(that is, if similar patterns can be discerned from past data) can be relied on that might help sway an opinion one way or another during the spring predictably barrier.