as a forecaster here in Ca, there have been strong El Nino events in the past and the west coast was below normal the entire season. other times La Nino like this last winter gave Ca one of the wettest seasons on record.  i think that the evidence points to warmer conditions but it all depends on where the ridge sets up off the west coast that determines rainfall potential .this last season a shift of the offshore ridge by 200 miles would have made all the difference in our rainfall. we really got lucky this last year.  this next year if records hold true we will have dry year despite all the talk of super El Nino. we will just have to wait and see